Melanoma Risk Predictor

To use the Melanoma Risk Predictor, you must agree with the following terms and conditions of use.

The Melanoma Risk Predictor is not intended to be used as a substitute for your doctor's advice. You should always consult your doctor if you think you might be at risk, particularly if you have noticed a new or changed skin lesion.

The Melanoma Risk Predictor is designed to provide an estimation of a person's risk of developing melanoma over the next 3.5 years.
The Melanoma Risk Predictor is intended for people who have never been diagnosed previously with melanoma.
Melanomas are the most dangerous type of skin cancer.
The predictor does not estimate a specific risk of you developing other kinds of skin cancer [such as basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)].
The predictor may be updated from time to time with new data which may affect results generated from use of the tool.
We will keep data for analysis purposes so that we can assess how well the predictor meets expectations of users. The retained data will not be able to identify you.
The information provided by the predictor is to be used as a general guide and not to be solely relied upon. It is highly recommended that you discuss your personal risk factors and results of this risk assessment with your doctor.
The Melanoma Risk Predictor has been derived from a study of 42,000 Australian participants and has been validated in Australia. The performance of the predictor in other parts of the world cannot be guaranteed.

This page was updated on 22 October 2024

Predicted probability of developing a melanoma in the next 3.5 years

Please enter answers to ALL of the following questions from the drop-down menus in the boxes

Email Address^**

Where do you live?

What state do you live in?

Compared to other people where you live, how likely do you think it is that you will get melanoma at some time in the future?

How old are you?

What sex are you?

What is your ancestry? (That is, where did most of your ancestors come from?)

Note: "other" includes Asia, Pacific Islands, Africa, Indigenous Australian

Do you have private health insurance?

What was your NATURAL hair colour when you were 21 years of age?

IMAGINE you spent several weeks outdoors in the sun, without protecting your skin with sunscreen or clothing. Which of the following would happen to your skin?

When you were 21 years of age, how many MOLES did you have on your skin? (Match your answers with the pictures. Please cross one box)

Thinking about ALL of the times when you were outside in the sun during the past year, about how often did you apply sunscreen?

About how many separate SKIN CANCERS (but not moles or warts) have you ever had CUT OFF your skin?

About how many separate SUNSPOTS or SKIN CANCERS have you ever had FROZEN or BURNT OFF your skin?

Have any close blood relatives ever been told that they have MELANOMA?

During the past 3 years how many times has ALL or NEARLY ALL of your skin been deliberately checked by a doctor?

^**This is optional and not required to obtain your results. By providing your email address, you are acknowledging that we may send you information related to new cancer research, relevant medical news and opportunities for you to support our Institute. You may unsubscribe at any time. Your email address will be collected by QIMR Berghofer and will not be linked to any of the responses you have provided in completing the tool. Our privacy policy outlines how we may collect, hold and use your personal information.

Predicted probability of developing a melanoma in the next 3.5 years

Very much below average

Below average

Average

Above average

Very much above average

Above average

Average

Below average

Very much below average

This tool is not for clinical or diagnostic use.

This tool provides an indicative risk based on a population study.

Compared to another in your age group, your risk of skin cancer in the next 3.5 years is .

We recommend that you become familiar with your skin. Check all areas of your skin regularly (at least every three months), including skin not normally exposed to the sun. Look for new spots or changes in the shape, colour or size of any existing spots or moles. If you notice anything unusual, see your doctor. (A guide to checking your skin can be found here).

The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia recommends that people at higher risk of melanoma should have regular skin checks by a doctor. We therefore recommend you talk to your doctor about your melanoma risk.

To learn more about QIMR Berghofer’s Deputy Director David Whiteman’s cancer research, please visit his Cancer Control Group laboratory page.

Even though your risk of melanoma is not 'high' compared with other people of the same age and sex, this does not mean that you will not get melanoma. To minimise your risk of developing melanoma, it is important to protect yourself from the harmful effects of sunlight. When outdoors and exposed to the sun, remember to wear sun protective clothing (including hats and sunglasses), apply broad-spectrum sunscreen to exposed skin, and seek shade.

More information about sun protection can be found at the SunSmart website.

To learn more about QIMR Berghofer’s Deputy Director David Whiteman’s cancer research, please visit his Cancer Control Group laboratory page.

Our privacy policy outlines how we may collect, hold and use your personal information. The information provided by the tool is to be used as a general guide and not to be solely relied upon. It is highly recommended that you discuss your personal risk factors and results of this risk assessment with your doctor. If you have a specific question about technical aspects of the risk tool please contact Professor David Whiteman (email: david.whiteman@qimrberghofer.edu.au)